Looking Back at 2008… Predicting 2009
What a year it was…
The year 2008 has been a real roller-coaster ride for most of us. Early in the year we saw sky-rocketing oil prices cripple economies already struggling with enormous debt and lousy financing decisions. For the first ten months of 2008 the future wide-spread adoption of alternative energy (anything besides oil) couldn’t appear more certain – with the debate centered on _which_ alternative energy will out-compete the rest.
Now at the end of 2008 oil prices appear to be in an uncontrolled free-fall with the bottom not yet found despite OPEC’s intentions, and everyone is wondering if we can still invest in expensive new-energy technologies at the same time we provide bail-outs and “bridge-loans” to major industries.
The spike and fall of oil prices in 2008 are truly of historic proportions. The resulting economic collapse has sent financial markets into crisis, which created a credit crisis that has sent the entire economy into a recession, possibly a global depression.
Consumers have learned that they really _can_ live without using as much as previously believed to be comfortable. Consumers world-wide have tightened their belts and made changes to their lifestyles that have reduced overall consumption.
So what to do about 2009?
We have high-hopes and soaring expectations of our young new President, hoping that he will somehow find a path for us out of the economic quagmire we’ve created. His new energy team of highly motivated global warming supporters will most likely work to cut carbon dioxide emissions, encourage wind and solar power, and seek to restrict new drilling for domestic oil supplies. The new President is historically a strong supporter of mid-west ethanol interests, and will probably work to protect and promote that industry. We hope that includes support of flex-fuel mandates to help build a viable market for cheap oil alternatives at the local gas stations around the world.
We will probably find the “bottom” of oil prices sometime soon as more of the OPEC pumping (it’s not really “production” is it?) cuts hit the world markets. These artificial supply restrictions will probably mean that oil is a little more scarce, and will help to drive up prices and profits for oil-pumping nations. Their goal is to find a “right” price-point, where oil is still too cheap for us to work actively to replace it, but still as profitable as possible to fund and strengthen their assorted national interests.
Reduced world-wide consumption is a double-edged sword and means that recovery from the recession will take longer and continue to hurt profit-margins for businesses – costing additional jobs, and at the same time creating new categories and types of jobs for those with “clean technology” experience.
Keep your seat belts fastened…
New Year’s Resolutions
It’s that time again…
My personal New Year’s resolutions are:
- Complete development of the current phase of FuelClinic.com by February, and have the training module framework completed by April 2009.
- Continue building out my other web-publishing channels
- Eat less carbs and more protein in an effort to manage my own blood-sugar more effectively.
- Take my wife out for a “date night” every two weeks, at least.
- Complete some home-improvement projects like a new closet for the spare bedroom, and shelves for the nook in the “den/office”.
- Train and run two races this year, a 5K in the spring and a 10K in the fall.
What are your resolutions?
Plunging Oil Prices act as $350-Billion-Dollar Stimulus Package
It was only five months ago that oil prices hit a record high of $147 a barrel. Now they’re below $40 thanks to slowing global demand. At the same time, gas prices have plunged from over $4 a gallon to around $1.67 nationally. (And some analysts think they’re heading to a buck a gallon.) And just as high energy prices were a drag on the economy last summer, they’re giving it a boost heading into 2009. JP Morgan Chase economist James Glassman estimates that the drop in oil prices represents “a boost equivalent to a $350 billion stimulus.” To bring that down to the average consumer, Glassman explains, think of it this way: The typical household drives 15,000 miles annually. So a drop in gas prices to, say, $1.50 a gallon would represent a savings in their annual gas bill of $2,500 from when gas was at $4. This could boost GDP growth by as much as two percentage points.
Read the rest at: 5 Reasons Why the Economy Might Recover Faster Than You Think in 2009
The E7 Purpose-Built Cop Car: Can sniff out nukes while getting 30mpg
I needed to get some eye-candy out here on the blog… how about a purpose-built cop car that has a bio-diesel burning power-plant, built-in lights, machine-gun holders, and does 0-60 in 6.5 seconds?
Meet the E7 – even Batman would like this car.Â
Unlike conventional police cruisers, which are retrofitted consumer vehicles such as the Ford Crown Victoria, the E7 is the first car designed and built specifically for law enforcement.
“You would never send a pickup truck to go put out a fire,” Li said. “Why would you send a family sedan to go take care of a homeland-security issue?”
Flashing emergency lights are embedded in the E7’s frame, making the car aerodynamic and visible from all directions. The front seats are designed with extra space to accommodate a police officer’s utility belt…
…Li said the car’s 300 bhp forced-induction 3.0-diesel engine will deliver 420 lb-ft of torque and propel the vehicle from zero to 60 mph in 6.5 seconds, with a governed top speed of 155 mph.
He also said the E7’s engine, which can run on either ultra-low sulfur diesel or biodiesel, will have a combined fuel economy rating of 28 to 30 mpg — up to 40 percent more fuel efficient than conventional police cruisers.
That last point is important when you remember that earlier this year police were cutting patrols, mounting horses, or using bikes to try to control the skyrocketing impact of fuel on the operating budgets.
Watch the video report over at Fox.
Blog Outages Thursday/Friday
This blog has been suffering repeated outages over the last two days, apparently related to a database problem at the hosting site. We are working to resolve the problem for good, and apologize for any confusion it may have caused you. FuelClinic.com remained online throughout, as it’s hosted differently.
Has OPEC Lost Control?
OPEC wants to prop up the dive-bombing price of oil, to keep their bank accounts flush with fresh cash. Russia is also feeling the pinch, as the rest of the world decides it _can_ live on less oil than previously consumed. OPEC would like Russia to join them in cutting output, in an effort to bring prices up.
Opec has been eagerly trying to recruit Russia to join its efforts and analysts say together the two could announce a further reduction of as much as 3m barrels a day of oil production within the next week.
Chakib Khelil, Algeria’s oil minister and Opec’s president, told state radio on Thursday there was a consensus among Opec members to reduce production when they met in the Algerian seaside town of Oran on December 17. He said: “The Oran meeting will decide a severe production cut to stabilise the oil market.â€Â
Time will tell if they can woo the worlds consumers back to heavy consumption at the same time they bring prices back to “normal” profitability. If they are successful at turning this train around, then it’s likely the run-up and recovery of recent history were always under OPEC control – then what does it say about their intentions, as America teetered on the brink of the housing investment crisis in an election year…
What do you think?
Fighting Forclosure: One Woman’s Goal to Avoid Forclosure
I use Google Alerts to help monitor the web to find new websites and blog postings for the search term “FuelClinic” in an effort to understand how marketing and other promotional efforts are going. It’s a useful tool that will email you once or twice a day if Google spots any new pages matching your search term. (It’s a good way to keep an eye on the competition also!)
Usually the Alerts tell me something I already knew – like this new blog post will probably show up later today or tomorrow as an Alert in my email. It’s nice to know that Google notices my hard work.
But my favorite Alerts are those that are not expected, like this one from earlier this week from “Fighting Forclosure” – a blog by Dawn who journals her monthly fight to save (or as she says “find”) an extra $900 each month in order to cover her mortgage payment after a recent divorce left her with the house.
Google Alerts found Dawn’s recent post when she wrote about using FuelClinic for the past six months, and says it’s helped her understand her fuel usage better. This makes me very happy to hear, and helps inspire me to continue to struggle to build the rest of FuelClinic so that it may be even more useful to her and others.
At a time where many people are in a similar struggle with their mortgage, Dawn’s honesty, ingenuity, and advice is very inspiring. If you are in a similar situation, I recommend you read her blog. While you are there, you can click on an advertisement or two as well.
Update: Two Million Miles!
Earlier this month FuelClinic.com members climbed past 2-million-miles of tracking and managing fuel efficiency using the tools on the website. Together we’ve stopped to refuel over 10,000 times – buying just under 90,000 gallons of fuel. Continued-usage statistics for the site are very strong, as a good number of our users return every few days to continue recording mileage. Thank you!
No More Chasing Investment (for now)
You may have noticed that development has stalled on new features like the Twitter interface and the training modules. Over the past two months we’ve been actively seeking start-up funding so that we may go full-time in continuing the development of the site. This has taken a tremendous amount of time and effort.
While we’ve received a good deal of very positive feedback, our timing was very poor. The economic downturn since September, coupled with the dramatic drop in fuel prices since November, has made it very difficult to get past the “Gee you have a good idea, come back to talk to us in six months” stage. Overall, it was a very worth-while effort, as continued business-plan development has really helped us find and focus on our core model.
We’re keeping a few investment doors open, but are no longer counting on investment until Summer 2009 at the soonest, and are not actively chasing investment. This means we’ll continue to boot-strap FuelClinic.com development for the foreseeable future, and development of new features (as opposed to seeking funding sources) will again be the focus of our limited resources.
Obama: The Future of the Auto-Industry, Green-Fuel Surcharge
Barak Obama was on Meet the Press this weekend, and gave some insight into his plans for the US Auto-Industry and possibility of a fuel-surcharge
What do you think about $4/gallon gas mandate that Brokaw puts forth? I think Obama had the correct response, but it’s clear that cheap gas literally kills new investment in alternative energy solutions.
OPEC Promises “Significant” Cuts – Again.
OPEC is to meet again on December 17th to mandate their members turn back their production output valves, in an effort to bring the price of oil up from it’s current lows.
OPEC President Chakib Khelil, who is also Algeria’s minister for energy and mines, told the Associated Press that a consensus has emerged among OPEC producers that a “significant reduction” is warranted by the current price slide.
Khelil would not discuss specifically how deep the cut might be. But he used the word “severe,” and noted that some analysts have predicted cuts of as much as two million barrels a day.
OPEC previously announced a 1.5-million-barrel-a-day reduction in October, but the decision failed to halt the fall in prices and markets have been expecting another cut at the Dec. 17 summit.
Why not keep OPEC on the run – regardless the price of oil – conserve as much fuel as possible w/o degrading your standard of living. Use resources like FuelClinic.com ( http://www.fuelclinic.com ) to learn to conserve and track your progress.
Continue to demand alternative sources of energy for your personal transportation. Demand “future-proof” FLEX-FUEL capable cars to take advantage of ethanol and methanol mix fuels w/o expensive new equipment, demand plug-in hybrids that charge overnight using clean electricity, demand small clean diesel engines that can run on bio-diesel that can be produced from algae.
Consumers cut consumption as a result of summers painful fuel costs – and pulled the rug from under OPEC, causing oil to “crash” back down to market value. Keep it going even lower by continuing to curb consumption, and keep pressuring government and industry to bring to market ways we can _replace_ most of oil from our transportation requirements.
A Real Plan for Automakers and America
Congress will likely consider a “bailout” for the auto-industry today, Monday, Dec. 8, 2008. It is an opportunity for Flex-Fuel legislation (Open Fuel Standard Act) to pass as well.
Congress should require that new cars run on any mix of gasoline and ethanol and methanol. As a reminder, in the war on oil-dependence, this would be a game-changer.
The facts:
1) Flex-fuel is an inexpensive, proven technology.
  a. Cost is $100 per vehicle for new cars.
  b. The original flex-fuel vehicle was the Model-T (for 17 years).
  c. The US auto industry currently has over 4.4 million flex-fuel cars on US roads (but few would know it).
  d. Brazil consumes ethanol (from sugar-cane) for over 50% of its fuel requirements.
2)Â The cost of oil will rise again
  a. OPEC has already cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day.
  b. And is considering an additional cut of more than 2.5 million additional barrels per day (later this week).
  c. Demand for oil from China and India, with vastly growing middle-classes, inevitably will rise again.
  d. The easiest to extract oil on earth has been tapped, and it gets more difficult as time goes on.
  e. Oil is still $30/barrel higher than its 10 year historic low.
3)Â National-security demands that we reduce our dependence.
  a. Russia, Venezuela, and OPEC are repressive, regressive, and often anti-American oil exporters.
  b. We fund their misbehaviors and we end up supporting terrorism.
  c. We cannot hope to modify the goals of a nuclear-intentioned Iran when we are so dependent and while they control the waterway through which 20% of world’s oil passes daily.
4)Â Economic strength demands that we reduce our dependence.
  a. We are exporting millions of jobs that could otherwise be producing our fuel domestically.
  b. We could be “recycling” these domestically spend dollars-at a time in which we need it so badly.
  c. We could be developing the technologies that will fuel the future of the energy marketplace globally.
5)Â Many solutions.
  a. We also need solar, nuclear, wind, and drilling.
  b. But we need Flex-Fuel biofuels NOW as the surest short-term path to addressing our dependecies and to create security and economic strength.
  c. The best time to get the auto-makers to cooperate is while they need a “bailout”.
6)Â Please, contact your Senator today–not tomorrow.
  a. Call (202) 224-3121 and ask to be transferred to your Senator’s office.
  b. You can make a difference with just a phone call.
  c. Call both of your Senators.
Â
Reprinted w/ Permission from MoveBeyondOil.org
E-mail: info@movebeyondoil.org
Phone: 516-717-0000
FuelClinic.com Update – w/ Doc Miles
FuelClinic.com Update – w/ Doc Miles
December 8, 2008 – Issue #002
We’re working hard to make FuelClinic the best place on earth to track and improve your fuel mileage. As part of these improvements, we’re opening new channels of communication – including this simple newsletter that will be published infrequently. I hope you find it useful! If not, unsubscribe instruction are in the footer. - Doc Miles (docmiles@fuelclinic.com)
 1. Opinion Poll: What’s most important to you?
Why do you use FuelClinic – to save money, to reduce carbon emissions, or to reduce foreign oil dependency? Cast your vote on our Opinion Poll on the homepage.   + For more: http://www.fuelclinic.com (middle of page on left) 2. Website Update: Two Million Miles Later, Still Climbing.
Earlier this month FuelClinic.com members climbed past 2-million-miles of tracking and managing fuel efficiency using the tools on the website. Together we’ve stopped to refuel over 10,000 times - buying just under 90,000 gallons of fuel. Continued-usage statistics for the site are very strong, as a good number of our users return every few days to continue recording mileage.Â
You may have noticed that development has stalled on new features like the Twitter interface and the training modules. Over the past two months we’ve been actively seeking start-up funding so that we may go full-time in continuing the development of the site. This has taken a tremendous amount of time and effort.
While we’ve received a good deal of very positive feedback, our timing was very poor. The economic downturn since September, coupled with the dramatic drop in fuel prices since November, has made it very difficult to get past the “Gee you have a good idea, come back to talk to us in six months” stage. Overall, it was a very worth-while effort, as continued business-plan development has really helped us find and focus on our core model.
We’re keeping a few investment doors open, but are no longer counting on investment until Summer 2009 at the soonest, and are not actively chasing investment. This means we’ll continue to boot-strap FuelClinic.com development for the forseeable future, and development of new features (as opposed to seeking funding sources) will again be the focus of our limited resources.
3. 2009 New Year’s Resolutions
We’d like to encourage you to encourage your friends to take control of their fuelish! behavior and start working to reduce their fuel consumption in the New Year. There will be one more mailing this year to this list in a few days focusing on the details of our “New Year’s Resolution Reward” plan.
4. 2009 Sneak-Peak: Fleet-FuelClinic, Tutorials, Fuelishness! Book, Etc…
We have our own New Year’s Resolutions!
A commercial version of FuelClinic.com is being developed. This small fleet version will allow business owners to discover, monitor, and adjust their fleet’s fuel-efficiency characteristics. Owners will be able to track drivers, vehicles, and routes to determine how the combination of the three can be adjusted to improve overall efficiency and reduce fuel costs. Owners will use on-line training to improve their driver’s performance.
   + Info: http://www.fuelclinic.com/index.cfm/page/fuelclinic_for_fleets
As a part of the development of the commercial Fleet-FuelClinic product we will be creating on-line ”eco-driving” tutorials called “clinics” that visitors can review and attempt. Using the existing FuelClinic tool-set, you will be able to track your own real-world progress after taking any number of these online tutroials.
We are currently writing two FuelClinic related books – one is a detailed guide to improving fuel efficiency and the other is a workbook that will act as a companion to the first book as well as the website, enabling readers to improve their fuel-efficiency in a way they prefer. Much of the book material will be available for free on the website as white-papers or tutorial content. The public website will always remain free, the books will be published and available for purchase on Amazon.com as well as FuelClinic.com and Fuelishness! Blog.
Limited advertising will also be incorporated into the FuelClinic free site. This is required to offset the monthly expenses of hosting the site in a reliable way. Advertising will be limited and controlled to avoid being a nusense or promoting bogus “miracle fuel” products.   Â
5. Take Action Today – FLEX-FUEL Mandate
Yesterday I encouraged readers at “Fuelishness! Blog” ( http://blog.fuelclinic.com ) to contact their Senators and insist that any bailout package for suto-industry also included a mandate for FLEX-FUEL fuel systems as standard equipment in all future cars built or sold in the United States.
This simple and inexpensive mandate would create a viable bio-fuels market both here in the US and around the world, and will usher in a new era of bio-fuels investment. FLEX-FUEL cars allow consumers to chose for themselves the kind of fuel they prefer to use for transportation without having to make a huge tax-payer-funded investment in new energy-distribution infrastructure.
FLEX-FUEL cars will enable ethanol/methanol-mixed fuels to compete head-to-head with gasoline at the pump, and will keep gas prices down while reducing emmissions and keeping fuel-profits at home.
   + FLEX-FUEL Mandate: http://tinyurl.com/5hvmnd
   + About FLEX-FUEL: http://tinyurl.com/64fe8x
6. Suggestions? Comments?
Please take the time to share our website with any of these services you subscribe to.
    + Help us grow: http://www.fuelclinic.com/index.cfm/page/encourageÂ
    + Latest Website News: http://blog.fuelclinic.com/category/websiteÂ
    + Forgot your Password?: http://www.fuelclinic.com/index.cfm/page/Password_Reminder
    + Comments, Suggestions: feedback@fuelclinic.com
As always – thank you for your time, ideas, and help!
- Doc Miles
docmiles@fuelclinic.com
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