Breakdown: Oil’s monopoly on transportation sector will hold beyond 2030, says EIA
Refer to the following charts and an estimate from the Energy Information Administration looking ahead twenty years.
Click image to enlarge.
Take a look at transportation – 96% of the energy we consume leading our modern mobile “just in time” lives is derived from one sole source - oil. In no uncertain terms, that’s a monopoly.
According to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) from the Energy Information Administration, not much is due to change in the next 20 years. They outlook for 2030 shows oil slipping it’s grip only slightly – down just 9% to still monopolize our transportation sector at 86% in 2030.
In 2030, oil will cost anywhere from $50/bbl to $200/bbl – depending on various factors, but the AEO’s best guesstimate settles somewhere around $130/bbl:
In the AEO 2009 reference case, world oil prices rise to $130 per barrel (real 2007 dollars) in 2030; however, there is significant uncertainty in the projection, and 2030 oil prices range from $50 to $200 per barrel in alternative oil price cases. The low price case represents an environment in which many of the major oil-producing countries expand output more rapidly than in the reference case, increasing their share of world production beyond current levels. In contrast, the high price case represents an environment where the opposite would occur: major oil-producing countries choose to maintain tight control over access to their resources and develop them more slowly… (read more…)
Astonishingly enough, the forecast calls for no growth in oil consumption during this time, which I find very hard to believe. Consumption will be curbed thru a mix of high prices and regulation.
Total U.S. demand for liquid fuels grows by only 1 million barrels per day between 2007 and 2030 in the reference case, and there is no growth in oil consumption. Oil use is curbed in the projection by the combined effects of a rebounding oil price, more stringent corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards, and requirements for the increased use of renewable fuels… (read more…)
Will we suffer through high gas prices for the next 20 years? Or longer?
- or -
Will pragmatic innovators lead the world beyond oil, into a future where seeking energy sources no longer dominates our time and politics, or limit so much of our human potential?
What do you think? Comments are open and greatly appreciated.